optionsWizard: Top 20 Sell-Put Picks, 2 Oct 2026

Quote snapshot 2026-10-02T11:00-05:00 (market open, live quotes, spread gate 15%). Quotes move; re-check bid/ask before placing.

Summary: The tape is strong but extended. The best picks are high-quality mega-caps (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL) 3–6% OTM on 1–2 week expiries; the high-premium semis and software names (LRCX, DDOG, AMD) round out the list. Everything expires by Oct 23: the news check found FTNT (Oct 28), MSFT (Oct 27/28) and META (Oct 28) report before the Oct 30 expiry, which the screen missed, so every Oct 30 contract was dropped.
Regime: QQQ $750.2 uptrend, above SMA20 728 / SMA50 717 / SMA200 669; RSI 65.7, 20d vol 15%, 1m +5.8%, 0.6% off its high. Calm but stretched after a strong September. I favour deltas ≤0.20 and short expiries over chasing premium.

Ranked picks

#	Rtg	Tick	Exp	DTE	Strike	Sell @	Δ	OTM	B/E	Prem	Cash	RoC	Ann.	Hist	Avg↓	Ratio	σ
1	78	NVDA	10-16	14	222.5	1.32	0.17	5.5%	221.18	$132	$22,250	0.59%	15%	14%	5.0%	0.83	0.89
2	77	MSFT	10-09	7	497.5	1.45	0.16	3.3%	496.05	$145	$49,750	0.29%	15%	14%	2.1%	1.01	0.95
3	76	AAPL	10-09	7	322.5	0.91	0.16	3.0%	321.59	$91	$32,250	0.28%	15%	17%	2.3%	0.72	0.92
4	74	NVDA	10-07	5	227.5	0.58	0.14	3.4%	226.92	$58	$22,750	0.25%	19%	18%	3.1%	0.46	1.01
5	73	AAPL	10-16	14	320	1.68	0.19	3.7%	318.32	$168	$32,000	0.52%	14%	18%	2.8%	1.07	0.79
6	72	LRCX	10-16	14	320	3.77	0.18	8.9%	316.23	$377	$32,000	1.18%	31%	11%	4.6%	2.33	0.81
7	72	MSFT	10-16	14	495	2.92	0.20	3.8%	492.08	$292	$49,500	0.59%	15%	15%	3.1%	1.23	0.76
8	72	AMZN	10-07	5	242.5	0.52	0.14	3.2%	241.98	$52	$24,250	0.21%	16%	11%	2.3%	0.81	1.05
9	71	META	10-09	7	695	2.87	0.15	4.7%	692.13	$287	$69,500	0.41%	22%	12%	3.4%	1.03	0.96
10	70	DDOG	10-23	21	250	3.63	0.18	10.8%	246.37	$363	$25,000	1.45%	25%	12%	5.1%	2.43	0.81
11	69	AMZN	10-09	7	242.5	0.95	0.18	3.2%	241.55	$95	$24,250	0.39%	20%	16%	2.9%	0.82	0.85
12	68	NVDA	10-09	7	227.5	1.02	0.19	3.4%	226.48	$102	$22,750	0.45%	23%	23%	3.5%	0.56	0.83
13	67	AMZN	10-16	14	240	1.62	0.20	4.2%	238.38	$162	$24,000	0.68%	18%	18%	3.8%	1.01	0.76
14	66	TXN	10-16	14	280	2.66	0.21	5.6%	277.34	$266	$28,000	0.95%	25%	15%	3.9%	1.62	0.73
15	65	AMD	10-09	7	600	3.90	0.18	5.4%	596.10	$390	$60,000	0.65%	34%	18%	4.0%	0.88	0.86
16	63	AMD	10-16	14	590	6.47	0.20	7.0%	583.53	$647	$59,000	1.10%	29%	17%	5.4%	1.18	0.77
17	61	DDOG	10-16	14	260	3.92	0.22	7.2%	256.08	$392	$26,000	1.51%	39%	21%	4.0%	1.82	0.68
18	60	ABNB	10-16	14	155	1.38	0.21	5.1%	153.62	$138	$15,500	0.89%	23%	18%	4.1%	1.19	0.73
19	58	SHOP	10-16	14	140	1.50	0.19	7.6%	138.50	$150	$14,000	1.07%	28%	18%	7.0%	0.85	0.79
20	56	MCHP	10-16	14	77.5	0.82	0.20	6.9%	76.68	$82	$7,750	1.06%	28%	18%	5.2%	1.11	0.76

How to read the columns
# rank by optionsWizard rating · Rtg optionsWizard rating 0-100 (~40% safety, 30% premium quality, 20% owner quality, 10% market regime)
Tick ticker · Exp expiration (MM-DD) · DTE days to expiration · Strike put strike
Sell @ suggested limit price, between bid and mid
Δ put delta – roughly the market-implied chance of finishing in the money
OTM % the strike is below the current price
B/E breakeven = strike − premium; you only lose money at expiry below this
Prem premium per contract (100 shares) · Cash cash secured per contract (strike × 100)
RoC premium / cash for this trade · Ann. RoC annualised (× 365 / DTE)
Hist share of same-length windows in the last 3y where the stock closed below this strike's OTM % (historical assignment rate)
Avg↓ in those assigned windows, the average % the close finished below the strike
Ratio RoC / (Hist × Avg↓) – premium vs historical expected assignment loss; >1 the premium more than paid for past assignments, <1 it did not
σ cushion – distance to the strike in 1-sigma IV expected moves (1.0 = a full expected move away)
Hist, Avg↓ and Ratio come from a mostly-bull 3y window, so they understate crash risk.

Shading: Conservative ≥75 Balanced 60–74 Aggressive <60. Sell @ = limit between bid and mid. Prem/Cash per contract. Hist = share of 3y same-length windows that closed below this OTM%. σ = cushion in 1-sigma IV moves.

Concentration: NVDA ×3 and AMZN ×3: one bad print or sector move hits all three legs. AMD, MSFT, AAPL and DDOG ×2 each. 8 of 20 picks are semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, LRCX, TXN, MCHP), so pick a subset rather than selling all 20.

Theses

#1 NVDA 10-16 222.5P Conservative 78: Top-quality name; 5.5% OTM with ~0.9σ cushion and hist assign 14% at or below delta. Wrong if the chip rally (RSI 64) reverses hard toward the SMA50 near $218.

#2 MSFT 10-09 497.5P Conservative 77: Low-beta (0.54) mega-cap in a recovering uptrend; ~1σ cushion, strike just above the 20d low $486. Wrong if pre-earnings (Oct 27/28) de-risking starts early.

#3 AAPL 10-09 322.5P Conservative 76: The calmest name in the list (beta 0.3, safety 88); strike sits under the SMA20/near the SMA50. Low yield, but very high odds of keeping it. Wrong on an iPhone-18 demand scare.

#4 NVDA 10-07 227.5P Balanced 74: 5-DTE, >1σ cushion, liquid (2-cent spread). Pays the least of the NVDA picks, with the most room. Wrong on a sharp semis-wide pullback this week.

#5 AAPL 10-16 320P Balanced 73: Two-week AAPL near the SMA50 with huge OI (11.7k). Earnings Oct 29 come after expiry. Wrong if price loses the $322 SMA50.

#6 LRCX 10-16 320P Balanced 72: 8.9% OTM, near the SMA20/50 (~$306), hist assign 11% vs delta 18%; analyst upgrades, expires before Oct 21 earnings. High beta (2.5): a semi selloff hits hard.

#7 MSFT 10-16 495P Balanced 72: Second MSFT expiry, near the 20d low; tight spread. Wrong if MSFT drifts into earnings (1y return is still flat).

#8 AMZN 10-07 242.5P Balanced 72: Farthest-OTM AMZN weekly: >1σ cushion, hist assign 11%, strike right at the SMA200 ($241). Low yield. Wrong if the stock loses the SMA200.

#9 META 10-09 695P Balanced 71: 4.7% OTM, ~1σ cushion, hist 12% vs delta 15%. META rose 27% in Sept and dipped this week on AI-capex worries. Wrong if that pullback deepens below the SMA20 ($696).

#10 DDOG 10-23 250P Balanced 70: 10.8% OTM, ~SMA20/50 support ($244), hist 12% vs delta 18%. Earnings Nov 5 come after expiry. Wide spread: work the limit. Wrong if the recent analyst downgrade sparks profit-taking after a 34% month.

#11 AMZN 10-09 242.5P Balanced 69: Same strike, one week; the 20d support of $244 sits just above it. AMZN is below its SMA50 (soft trend). Wrong if it slides to the 60d low ($226).

#12 NVDA 10-09 227.5P Balanced 68: Liquid, decent yield, but hist assign (23%) runs above delta (19%), so there's less real cushion than it looks. Wrong on any semis rotation.

#13 AMZN 10-16 240P Balanced 67: Strike below the SMA200; very liquid (OI 23k). Third AMZN pick, so one bad week hits all three. Wrong if the slide from the SMA50 continues.

#14 TXN 10-16 280P Balanced 66: 5.6% OTM, above the SMA20/50 (~$270); expires before Oct 21 earnings. A dividend-growing owner, but extended (RSI 72, +16% in 1m) with a falling SMA50.

#15 AMD 10-09 600P Balanced 65: Rich premium 5.4% OTM, hist 19% ~ delta. AMD is up 39% in a month (RSI 70, beta 2.6), so a mean-reversion week could test this. Size small.

#16 AMD 10-16 590P Balanced 63: 7% OTM two-week. Support ($458 20d low) is far below, so nothing but momentum holds it up. Second AMD pick, same concentration risk. Earnings Nov 3 come after expiry.

#17 DDOG 10-16 260P Balanced 61: Closer strike, high yield, but hist assign 21% and delta 0.22. Second DDOG pick; one-ticker risk.

#18 ABNB 10-16 155P Balanced 60: KeyBanc upgrade, strike well above the SMA200 ($143.5), but ABNB is below its SMA20/50 after a -11% month. Wrong if the downtrend continues.

#19 SHOP 10-16 140P Aggressive 58: 7.6% OTM, near the SMA50 ($141); AI-commerce news flow is positive. High vol (62%) and a 47% 1y drawdown make this purely premium-driven.

#20 MCHP 10-16 77.5P Aggressive 56: Strike below the SMA200 ($78.9) after an AI data-center pop (+14% 1m), but the SMA50 is falling and quality is middling. Weakest owner-if-assigned case.

Other candidates considered

Contract	Bid	Δ	OTM	Ann.	Hist	Why not
FTNT 10-30 160P	3.85	0.21	11.6%	31%	5%	Screen #3, but earnings Oct 28 (Fortinet IR) fall inside the expiry; consensus is Hold with an average PT of $153, below the price
META 10-30 660P	9.45	0.18	9.5%	19%	11%	Earnings Oct 28, before expiry
MSFT 10-30 475P	4.80	0.18	7.7%	13%	8%	Earnings Oct 27/28, before expiry
AMD 10-07 605P	2.71	0.16	4.6%	33%	17%	Thin OI (102); AMD already has 2 picks
META 10-07 710P	3.60	0.23	2.6%	37%	17%	Only 2.6% OTM, 0.7σ, OI 101
AAPL 10-07 327.5P	1.31	0.26	1.5%	29%	23%	1.5% OTM / 0.58σ: too tight
LRCX 10-16 330P	5.90	0.26	6.0%	47%	18%	Delta 0.26, 0.56σ: the 320 is the better risk/reward
DDOG 10-23 255P	4.70	0.22	9.0%	32%	17%	Picked the 250 on the same expiry
ABNB 10-16 157.5P	1.89	0.28	3.6%	31%	26%	Delta 0.28, 0.52σ

Avoided names

Broken trend (below SMA200 / falling SMA50 / far off high): AVGO, GOOGL/GOOG, COST, TSLA, NFLX, APP, ADBE, INTU, ISRG, PEP; QCOM, KLAC, AMAT are 26–32% off their highs.
Too volatile (60d vol >70%): MU, MRVL, ARM, CRWD, PLTR, INTC.
Passed the safety gates but no put qualified (premium/delta/liquidity): FAST (earnings Oct 14), WBD, GILD, ROST, MAR, CTAS, AMGN, VRTX, DXCM, PANW, ADI, ASML (earnings Oct 14), ADP, FANG, WDAY, CDNS, MPWR, SNPS. These are safe names, but their OTM premium is too thin right now.
Calendar risk: FTNT, META and MSFT earnings fall inside the Oct 30 expiry. TXN and LRCX report Oct 21, so only the Oct 16 expiry is used for them.

Management rules

Only sell a put if you are happy to own 100 shares at the strike, and size so cash secured stays within your allocation.
Use limit orders at or above the "Sell @" price. Don't hit the bid on the wider-spread names (DDOG, SHOP, LRCX, TXN).
Take profit at 50–60% of max premium. On weeklies, let them expire if they are far OTM by Thursday.
Reassess if the stock closes below its 20d support or the strike is touched. Roll down and out for a credit, or accept assignment and sell covered calls.
The regime is extended: if QQQ closes below its SMA20 (~$728), stop adding new short puts and favour the farther-OTM picks.
Don't stack correlated risk: choose a handful across NVDA/AMD/LRCX/TXN/MCHP, not all of them.

Generated by optionsWizard. Not financial advice; verify quotes before trading.